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A geo-political analysis of Mumbai attacks

04 Dec

I have become an information junkie. Everyday I swallow tons of information especially regarding recent attacks. Its not difficult considering it is everywhere.Lunch time conversation, taxi ride conversations all revolve around our lack of political will, the ill-equipped security forces, and Pakistan.

Most people I know want a final confrontation with our neighbour next door. I dont. Its a country where democracy is just a facade and the real power lies with the military. A military which has freely mixed and encouraged the jehadi movement as tactile method to keep the more powerful adversary engaged in its own backyard.

But we have seen repeatedly in the past how easy it is for a mercenary to bite the hand it feeds. US learnt it in Afghanistan when Taliban used the very weapons/funds US provided during Soviet era against it. Benazir Bhutto who turned a blind eye as terrorism festered in POK fell to a bullet by the same lot. Rajiv Gandhi and the LTTE also went down the same path. And hence to think that Pakistan military can always control these hardliners is to finally prove Eisenberg’s principle wrong.

Finally Zardari has assured India that in face of concrete evidence the terror mongers will be tried in Pakistan like a Pakistani citizen. Zardari would know all about the strong legal systems in Pakistan considering he himself was tried, convicted and is now the PM. India meanwhile is still busy arranging defence lawyer for Qasab and letting him eat 3 square meals on tax payers money.

However considering you can do much better than read my pseudo-analysis, I am reproducing bits from a link SG had as his status message. You can read the complete article here. It is quite good in summarizing India’s compulsions, US ‘ interests in the region and Pakistan’s posturing.

Now, step back and consider the situation the Mumbai attackers have created. First, the Indian government faces an internal political crisis driving it toward a confrontation it didn’t plan on. Second, the minimum Pakistani response to a renewed Indo-Pakistani crisis will be withdrawing forces from western Pakistan, thereby strengthening the Taliban and securing al Qaeda. Third, sufficient pressure on Pakistan’s civilian government could cause it to collapse, opening the door to a military-Islamist government — or it could see Pakistan collapse into chaos, giving Islamists security in various regions and an opportunity to reshape Pakistan. Finally, the United States’ situation in Afghanistan has now become enormously more complex.

The welfare of the subcontinent ironically depends on welfare of Pakistan.

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3 Comments

Posted by on December 4, 2008 in Uncategorized

 

Tags: , ,

3 responses to “A geo-political analysis of Mumbai attacks

  1. chandni

    December 5, 2008 at 9:30 am

    well, its an unrelated comment but just discovered ur blog…and I am hooked!

     
  2. Banjo

    December 9, 2008 at 3:51 am

    The Welfare of India lies in her neighbour’s welfare. The well-being of the rich lies in the welfare of the poor. Ahh I see Marx laughing his heart out. and I’m serious 🙂

     
  3. johnny

    January 3, 2009 at 6:12 pm

    rPIxNi Thanks for good post

     

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